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October 25, 2008

Video Ad: Will America Be Better Off Four Years From Now? ‘YES’ , If We Unite and Rebuild TOGETHER!

 “At this defining moment in our history, the question is not, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ We all know the answer to that,” Obama narrates. “The real question is will our country be better off four years from now? How will we lift our economy and restore America’s place in the world?”

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October 18, 2008

Get Out The Vote (GOTV): Don’t Be Seduced or Fooled By The Poll Numbers

 Election Day is ONLY 17 days away and even though the polls reflect that Senator Obama is leading, I’m telling you – don’t be seduced by the poll numbers. Don’t believe the hype.

 We (Democrats) can’t start celebrating in the 4th quarter; we have to end the game strong.  We’re at the one yard line, now is the time to keep up the pressure, follow the game plan and guarantee the touch-down.

 Senators Obama and Biden are depending on you personally – EVERY VOTE counts.  Every person matters.  Every state matters.

None of us should look at the numbers and think, ‘Obama is going to win anyway, so I don’t have to vote’.  If enough people think that way Obama will not win.

Add that thinking to the allegations of illegal purging of voters all across the country – which will adversely affect newly registered voters –  and it is even more obvious that every vote is needed to win this election.

 A recent report in The New York Times stated that, “Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least 6 swing states have been removed from the voter rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law according to a review of state records and social security data by the NYT.”

The NYT said that this was attributed to errors in handling the registrations; it also said that it will adversely affect Democrats since there are more newly registered Democratic voters.  This will also cause confusion and frustration on Election Day when all these newly registered voters who are excited to vote are challenged by election officials.

We only have to look at the stealing of the 2000 and 2004 elections to be reminded how seemingly ‘little things’ can change the results of an election. We only have to look at the current financial crisis in America and now globally to see that having the wrong person as president can and will affect us all and can result in loss of savings, loss of jobs, loss of opportunities and cause us to struggle with basic things such as putting food on the table.

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October 15, 2008

Obama Dominating Among Early Voters In 5 Swing States!

Did Early Vote start in your state as yet?  If yes, VOTE TODAY!

SurveyUSA has a lot of good habits as a pollster, and one of them is breaking out the results of early and absentee voting in states where such things are allowed. So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state’s electorate as a whole:

    Poll    % Voted                  Non-Early State  Date      Early   Early Voters   Likely Voters ==================================================== NM     10/13     10%     Obama +23%     Obama +6% OH     10/13     12%     Obama +18%     Obama +4% GA     10/12     18%     Obama +6%      McCain +11% IA     10/9      14%     Obama +34%     Obama +10% NC     10/6       5%     Obama +34%     McCain +5%

We should caveat that these are not hard-and-fast numbers. Estimates of early voting results are subject to the same statistical vagaries as any other sort of subgroup analysis, such as response bias and small sample sizes.Nevertheless, Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.

Is this a typical pattern for a Democrat? Actually, it’s not. According to a study by Kate Kenski at the University of Arizona, early voters leaned Republican in both 2000 and 2004; with Bush earning 62.2 percent of their votes against Al Gore, and 60.4 percent against John Kerry. In the past, early voters have also tended to be older than the voting population as a whole and more male than the population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama or most other Democrats.
Now certainly, early voters tend to be your stauncher partisans rather than your uncommitted voters — just 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they’d waited until election day. So it’s unlikely that John McCain is actually losing all that many persuadable voters to the early voter tallies.

What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.

Keep in mind that there are veteran pollsters like Ann Selzer who think that most of her colleagues are vastly understating the degree to which youth and minority turnout is liable to improve in this election; Selzer’s polls have been 5-6 points more favorable to Obama than the averages in the states that she’s surveyed. So while these early voting numbers could turn out to be something of a curiosity, they could alternatively represent a canary in the coal mine for a coming Democratic turnout wave.

 

 

 

For complete post and graphics, go to:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html

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