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June 18, 2008

Obama Leads McCain in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio

Obama Leads McCain in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Poll Shows

Poll: Obama has clear lead over McCain in Pennsylvania...
Poll: Obama has modest lead over McCain in Ohio...
Poll: Obama has slight lead over McCain in Florida...
Poll: Michelle 9-point favorable lead over Cindy...

Democrat Barack Obama is leading Republican John McCain in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, the first time he’s had an advantage in all three electoral battleground states, a Quinnipiac University poll found.

Obama got a boost in support after securing the Democratic nomination in the final round of primaries June 3 and following the departure of Senator Hillary Clinton from the race, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director for the Hamden, Connecticut, university’s polling institute.

“Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president,” Brown said in a statement.

Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio together have 68 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency and have swung between both parties in recent presidential elections. No candidate has won the presidency since 1960 without taking at least two of the three.

Obama is ahead of McCain by a statistically significant margin in each state. He leads:

§        47 percent to 43 percent in Florida

§        48 to 42 percent in Ohio

§        52 to 40 percent in Pennsylvania

Both candidates are making appeals to independent voters in their campaigns. Obama, an Illinois senator, is ahead of McCain among self-identified independents in Florida and Pennsylvania and runs 2 percentage points behind the Arizona senator among independents in Ohio.

Bush, Iraq War

McCain is suffering because the approval ratings for fellow Republican President George W. Bush are 27 percent or less in each of the states, and because by a two-to-one margin voters say the Iraq War was a mistake, according to the poll.

Still, voters are split over whether the U.S. should begin an immediate withdrawal of troops, as Obama says, or stay until Iraq is stabilized, as McCain argues.

“The only good news for McCain in these numbers is that despite voters’ views on the war, he is holding his own with them about where to go from here,” Brown said.

The economy was listed as the top issue in the election by majorities in all three states, followed by the war.

The poll was conducted between June 9-16.

Quinnipiac surveyed:

§        1,453 likely voters in Florida, 1,396 in Ohio and 1,511 in Pennsylvania.

The margin of error was plus or minus 2.6 percentage points in Florida and Ohio and 2.5 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

Contact the reporter on this story: Mark Drajem in Washington at mdrajem@bloomberg.net

By Mark Drajem/Bloomberg





  1. i was glad to see this poll showing he is leading in these purple states, the hard fought primary has paid off as he had to really work hard in theses states except Florida of course. there is no need to get comfortable though he must continue to press hard. A Newsweek poll came out recently which shows a 15 point lead. November is a long way and things can change or tighten. I am concern that McCain raised more money than Obama in May.

    Comment by Dutty Bwoy — June 22, 2008 @ 1:17 am | Reply

  2. What a gwaan Dutty, I don’t put much weight in polls especially when it comes to Obama. The polls have ben wrong several times. Sometimes folks just lie about their intention because they don’t want to ‘seem’ racist or prejudice. Those figures will probbaly change many times in the next 5 months. As for the campaign contribution for May — that’s not a big deal.

    For May Obama raised $22M and had $43M in the bank. McCain raised $21M and had $31.6M in the bank. To put it in perspective Obama had his weakest fundraising month this year. This was McCain’s best month after 3 months of being the presumptive republican nominee and actively being on the ‘fundraising’ trail for 12 weeks.

    The $22M that Obama raised was money he raised without actively seeking it. It was basically unsolicited internet contributions. He took a week off since becoming the presumtive democratic nominee and has started to actively fundraise. His fundrasing should be very different in June.

    In addition since Obama opted out of public financing he can use the $43M in the bank for his Preisdential campaign. Since McCain will accept public financing he cannot use the $31.6M he has in the bank for his presidential campaign.

    Lots of work still has to be done before November 4 so PLEASE keep sending your prayers this way!

    One love,


    Comment by Paulette — June 22, 2008 @ 7:03 am | Reply

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